After watching all kinds of media outlets from left, right, center, fence etc. It is rather easy to predict what's going to unfold in Honduras in the next 10 days after the now infamous military coup d'etat that took Manuel Zelaya in pajamas to Costa Rica.
Watching General Romeo Vasquez speaking to the press, the man seems to be at least in appearance, a confused man trying to do what's right. After all it was the supreme court and the national assembly who declared and reiterated the illegality of the state run polling regarding a possible referendum to ammend the constitution. In an interview with Telesur, a tv network sympathetic to Chavez and his regime, General Vasquez narrated how in the days preceding the coup he tried to convene with "his" President Zelaya a way to interpret his orders against the ruling of the supreme court and the assembly. Zelaya responded by firing him, but the courts and the assembly proceded to annul whatever Zelaya wanted, which in my opinion reveals who is calling the shots besides the General.
I think its clear, now that Micheletti has been illegally proclaimed interim president, that Micheletti and both the judicial and legislative branch of the Honduran government where in clear conspiracy to oust President Zelaya in far greater proportion than the military. The international reaction has been unanimous in condemnation and Micheletti seems to be against quite difficult odds to stay in power. In this context, I predict this is what's going to happen:
Tomorrow, people are going to be rioting in Honduras and in the same manner like Iran, there's going to be a lot of drama involved in its reporting. At some point Micheletti will demand the military to intervene with force and there will be a few deaths of probably young people. Vasquez is going to face a few revolts within his ranks and he will realize that he is in deep trouble and on top of everything he will see how the morale of his troops will rapidly decay. Sometime either tomorrow or wednesday, Zelaya is going to clandestinely arrive in Honduras and appear in some kind of rally with his supporters all around him in downtown Tegucigalpa. He is going to march to the presidential palace, where, after some impasse, will be allowed inside for negotiation with Micheletti and Vasquez. Since the international pressure will be so hard with Micheletti, he will accept conditions for Zelaya to regain power, given that he remains president at the assembly. Zelaya, in about a day or two, three at most will regain power but won't call for a referendum because he would be too scared to go through so much ridicule again. Even with him returning to power, Zelaya's handling of the entire situation leaves him weakened, looking foolish as he is taken around in Venezuelan planes and letting Chavista political hitmen do all the dirty work for him. Even for people who don't realize it, the population does takes notice of this things and will punish him in case he actually achieves a referendum or whoever candidate seeks to become his chosen successor.
What the military did was deplorable, a bit understandable, but definitely foolish and Micheletti and his allies should have predicted the wide condemnation by the international community. Micheletti has killed himself politically but he also gave Zelaya hard stab that will be difficult to overcome. So as I write this the riots should be starting, lets hope this whole things ends as soon as possible.
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