Regardless of the results of today's election, Hugo Chavez will remain in power indefinitely in Venezuela for the next 20 years, or perhaps even more. There are several reasons to believe this. Chavez, first of all, enjoys a high popularity standing within the venezuelan electorate, he controls a monopoly of the governmental three branches and all public institutions. With a few exceptions in some elected officials who are now rendered irrelevant by either Chavista paramilitary groups or the government itself, Hugo Chavez is guaranteed to be in charge of the country even in the figurative case that he quits or decides to retire, or whatever scenario that would find him in absence.
The venezuelan institutions and public bureaucracy are completely controlled by Chavista simpathyzers, if Chavez is gone there are going to be many characters who could replace him. A new ruling class has emerged in Venezuela and will not yield power to anyone; Chavez for example could decide to have someone else run for office under his tutelage, such is the example of Dimitri Medeyev and Vladimir Putin in Russia; or potentially Alvaro Uribe and Andres Felipe Arias in Colombia. The possibilities of a mini-Chavez could be endless, this person could offer a referendum to allow Chavez for reelection in 2016, or even in 2013, quitting office afterwards and offer an early election so Chavez could assume power in 2014 or even earlier. This case contemplates what Chavez has already publicly stated on the possibility of him winning today's referendum: he would quit, run again, in order to restart another mandate until 2016. From now until the expiration of Chavez mandate in 2012 there are three long years where Chavez can legally mobilize the national assembly to conduct another referendum on term limits and try for a third time(He could do this in the blink of an eye for the 2010 congressional elections and no challenges from the supreme court). If you are still skeptic, Just take a look at what's happening in Colombia to get an idea.
The future of Venezuela looks pretty bleak; violence is at record levels and lynch mobs and all kinds of irregular armed groups have emerged under his mandate. Middle and high class citizens are immigrating away in masses and the possibility of a resignated opposition such as communist Cuba or communist China is starting to emerge. But this exodus is by no means symbol to the illusion that only rich people in Venezuela oppose Chavez; proof of this is the poorest slum of Caracas, the district of Petare(1/5 of Caracas districts in absolute squalor) a place reminiscent of the worst favelas of Rio that rejected Chavez candidate in last mayoral election. Although this sets a clear example to neighboring countries such as Panama, Colombia and Ecuador, it is indeed a sad one, and the erosion of Venezuela has been a major case study of political of neo-authoritarianism in latin america and in the world. Perhaps Venezuelans opposers, under their roman catholic belief in destiny still think that one day this ordeal will be over, but such is not the case. Cuba is the clearest latin american example, but there are many others in the last few years such as the case of Belarus and Zimbabwe, all major regimes openly sympathized by Chavez(or Saudi Arabia by the US in any case). These countries all under bloody militaristic regimes conduct symbolic elections in order to validate themselves in front of their supporters and the international community. Democracy under the boot of cohersion and intimidation does not exist and will not exist; at least I know I am not being fooled by any of this.
Expect Venezuela to rid itself from the Chavista boot in 20 or 40 years time when the disgust of its population will not tolerate the abuses of the chavista ruling class just like Spain did in the 1980's or Argentina or Chile. For the rest of Latin America will be witness of this, if not succumbing to it, and because of this proper resitance is needed. Perhaps its relevant to quote El Che Guevara who said that most' people live inside the invisible cage of capitalism.' Also, Fidel Castro said yesterday that the future of Cuba lies in this referendum. I think Che is right and Fidel wrong. Che is right about the cage of rabid capitalism; venezuelans must realize that there is another cage, a far sinister one, and it is the one of Chavista authoritarianism which continues to annul the civility of its society. But Fidel is wrong because its irrelevant what happens in this referendum. Chavez will remain in power for years to come; unless something completely drastic occurs.... very unlikely.
Buddies - Mugabe(Zimbabwe) - Lukashenko(Belarus) - Chavez (Venezuela)
