After watching all kinds of media outlets from left, right, center, fence etc. It is rather easy to predict what's going to unfold in Honduras in the next 10 days after the now infamous military coup d'etat that took Manuel Zelaya in pajamas to Costa Rica.
Watching General Romeo Vasquez speaking to the press, the man seems to be at least in appearance, a confused man trying to do what's right. After all it was the supreme court and the national assembly who declared and reiterated the illegality of the state run polling regarding a possible referendum to ammend the constitution. In an interview with Telesur, a tv network sympathetic to Chavez and his regime, General Vasquez narrated how in the days preceding the coup he tried to convene with "his" President Zelaya a way to interpret his orders against the ruling of the supreme court and the assembly. Zelaya responded by firing him, but the courts and the assembly proceded to annul whatever Zelaya wanted, which in my opinion reveals who is calling the shots besides the General.
I think its clear, now that Micheletti has been illegally proclaimed interim president, that Micheletti and both the judicial and legislative branch of the Honduran government where in clear conspiracy to oust President Zelaya in far greater proportion than the military. The international reaction has been unanimous in condemnation and Micheletti seems to be against quite difficult odds to stay in power. In this context, I predict this is what's going to happen:
Tomorrow, people are going to be rioting in Honduras and in the same manner like Iran, there's going to be a lot of drama involved in its reporting. At some point Micheletti will demand the military to intervene with force and there will be a few deaths of probably young people. Vasquez is going to face a few revolts within his ranks and he will realize that he is in deep trouble and on top of everything he will see how the morale of his troops will rapidly decay. Sometime either tomorrow or wednesday, Zelaya is going to clandestinely arrive in Honduras and appear in some kind of rally with his supporters all around him in downtown Tegucigalpa. He is going to march to the presidential palace, where, after some impasse, will be allowed inside for negotiation with Micheletti and Vasquez. Since the international pressure will be so hard with Micheletti, he will accept conditions for Zelaya to regain power, given that he remains president at the assembly. Zelaya, in about a day or two, three at most will regain power but won't call for a referendum because he would be too scared to go through so much ridicule again. Even with him returning to power, Zelaya's handling of the entire situation leaves him weakened, looking foolish as he is taken around in Venezuelan planes and letting Chavista political hitmen do all the dirty work for him. Even for people who don't realize it, the population does takes notice of this things and will punish him in case he actually achieves a referendum or whoever candidate seeks to become his chosen successor.
What the military did was deplorable, a bit understandable, but definitely foolish and Micheletti and his allies should have predicted the wide condemnation by the international community. Micheletti has killed himself politically but he also gave Zelaya hard stab that will be difficult to overcome. So as I write this the riots should be starting, lets hope this whole things ends as soon as possible.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Honduras: Zelaya, Chavez and Chavista Bolchevism
To my surprise I woke up this morning at the news that the Honduran military had effectively taken control of Honduras by deporting President Manuel Zelaya and detaining 8 of his ministers as well as briefly kidnapping Ecuadorian, Venezuelan, Cuban and Nicaraguan diplomats. I just couldn't believe it, is it that somebody had enough balls to stand up and carry out truly radical action against this demagogue and his allies?
The now official coup d'etat is ridden with violations of international law(specially regarding the diplomats) as well as a partial suspension of electricity and the occupation of a news channel sympathetic to now former president Zelaya. A worrisome display of force by the Honduran military, it was a testament to the fragility of democratic governments in small latin american countries as well as the ever-present threat of armed insubordination in relationship to civil societies.
Yesterday Zelaya, while thinking the worst was over after his military commander refused to follow orders and carry out an illegal government run-and-paid poll, sat on the presidential palace surrounded by civilians of all kinds who expressed their solidarity to him, including children and a breast-feeding mother. The rather bizarre scene of the president being shielded by civilians had Zelaya commenting to El Pais of Spain his gratitude to the US government who according to him was one of the few political forces responsible for stopping the what was thought to be an aborted coup. He also lamented how Honduran civil society had to struggle for 30 years to subordinate the military to the state of law, and how the military's duty was to follow its president, the man elected by the people, his people. He layed there, strangely, in an scene of mixed international pauperism and pathetic solicitation; this only continues with his now public interviews from Costa Rica dressed in the same pajamas that he was wearing when he was deposed.
It is important to emphasize on Zelaya's reflections on the state of his country, after all his best ally is Hugo Chavez. Zelaya calls him a "democrat" and the Venezuelan government has supplied all the ballots for the government run polling, now effectively cancelled. But how is it that the same man who is now denouncing the usurpation of Honduran military power is the same man who considers Chavez a man of democracy? Chavez is notorious for his glorification of military power. He himself organized and leaded a massive military coup d'etat in 1992 that left 30 dead and constantly preached that the military is indeed the cornerstone to preserve his revolution. He shows up in uniform, leads military parades and commands the troops in protocolar ceremonies. He has never regretted his actions in 1992 and recalls it as a heroic epic ? Now this is the man that Zelaya has picked to empathize with his grievances against the honduran military caste and its bringing results.
Hugo Chavez has promised to "depose by whatever means necessary" whoever now becomes leader of Honduras, and has threatened with military action if his embassy or his diplomats are either harmed or kidnapped. According to him, any agression to his diplomats will be considered a "de-facto declaration of war" and he will not stand aside. The Venezuelan military, heavily re-armed and ever present in Venezuelan politics is "on-alert".
If Zelaya is concerned with rejecting military rule as the leader of the honduran civil society then he should reconsider keeping silent at the foolish chavista bark of military intervention. If Latin Americans are so preoccupied with ridding itself from American interventionism then whoever carries any common sense will recognize the opportunism that Chavez has assumed in this whole crisis and he himself should be denounced.
The fact of the matter is that Chavez will not be denounced by Zelaya, and he, like a powerless fool will only stand there letting the ecuadorians, nicaraguans and venezuelan do all the barking for him. It is because of this that the Honduran military has taken radical action, action against a new kind of Venezuelan lead foreign hegemony that is delinquent and cohercive. Latin American countries are naturally scared at the spectre of a new wave of military coups and have reacted unanimously against it. But with Venezuela's meddling in every latin american country, sometimes you will get violent insurrections against its presence. I now recognize that I am not surprised AT ALL by it and people in general should understand it in the same manner that people understand the rise of Chavez in Venezuela, action leads to reaction. Too much for the Chavista caste, lets see if they really have the balls to do anything - I doubt it.
The now official coup d'etat is ridden with violations of international law(specially regarding the diplomats) as well as a partial suspension of electricity and the occupation of a news channel sympathetic to now former president Zelaya. A worrisome display of force by the Honduran military, it was a testament to the fragility of democratic governments in small latin american countries as well as the ever-present threat of armed insubordination in relationship to civil societies.
Yesterday Zelaya, while thinking the worst was over after his military commander refused to follow orders and carry out an illegal government run-and-paid poll, sat on the presidential palace surrounded by civilians of all kinds who expressed their solidarity to him, including children and a breast-feeding mother. The rather bizarre scene of the president being shielded by civilians had Zelaya commenting to El Pais of Spain his gratitude to the US government who according to him was one of the few political forces responsible for stopping the what was thought to be an aborted coup. He also lamented how Honduran civil society had to struggle for 30 years to subordinate the military to the state of law, and how the military's duty was to follow its president, the man elected by the people, his people. He layed there, strangely, in an scene of mixed international pauperism and pathetic solicitation; this only continues with his now public interviews from Costa Rica dressed in the same pajamas that he was wearing when he was deposed.
It is important to emphasize on Zelaya's reflections on the state of his country, after all his best ally is Hugo Chavez. Zelaya calls him a "democrat" and the Venezuelan government has supplied all the ballots for the government run polling, now effectively cancelled. But how is it that the same man who is now denouncing the usurpation of Honduran military power is the same man who considers Chavez a man of democracy? Chavez is notorious for his glorification of military power. He himself organized and leaded a massive military coup d'etat in 1992 that left 30 dead and constantly preached that the military is indeed the cornerstone to preserve his revolution. He shows up in uniform, leads military parades and commands the troops in protocolar ceremonies. He has never regretted his actions in 1992 and recalls it as a heroic epic ? Now this is the man that Zelaya has picked to empathize with his grievances against the honduran military caste and its bringing results.
Hugo Chavez has promised to "depose by whatever means necessary" whoever now becomes leader of Honduras, and has threatened with military action if his embassy or his diplomats are either harmed or kidnapped. According to him, any agression to his diplomats will be considered a "de-facto declaration of war" and he will not stand aside. The Venezuelan military, heavily re-armed and ever present in Venezuelan politics is "on-alert".
If Zelaya is concerned with rejecting military rule as the leader of the honduran civil society then he should reconsider keeping silent at the foolish chavista bark of military intervention. If Latin Americans are so preoccupied with ridding itself from American interventionism then whoever carries any common sense will recognize the opportunism that Chavez has assumed in this whole crisis and he himself should be denounced.
The fact of the matter is that Chavez will not be denounced by Zelaya, and he, like a powerless fool will only stand there letting the ecuadorians, nicaraguans and venezuelan do all the barking for him. It is because of this that the Honduran military has taken radical action, action against a new kind of Venezuelan lead foreign hegemony that is delinquent and cohercive. Latin American countries are naturally scared at the spectre of a new wave of military coups and have reacted unanimously against it. But with Venezuela's meddling in every latin american country, sometimes you will get violent insurrections against its presence. I now recognize that I am not surprised AT ALL by it and people in general should understand it in the same manner that people understand the rise of Chavez in Venezuela, action leads to reaction. Too much for the Chavista caste, lets see if they really have the balls to do anything - I doubt it.
Chavez, the man in uniform, with the men in uniform
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Factor Chavez
George Galloway, the extravagant british MP whenever needing to refer to latin-america is commonly heard repeating the following statement "the only way to win an election in Latin America now (unless you want to cheat as they did in Peru and Mexico) is to say you're a friend of Fidel Castro and an enemy of George Bush." Go check youtube video or writing; the guy has been preaching this junk for the past 7 years though he might replace Chavez with Castro.
Matters in latin america are far from corroborating Galloway's hypothesis. Peru's election were actually thrown away from Ollanta Humala(the loser) on Alan Garcia's favor(one of the worst presidents of latin america in the 80's) because Hugo Chavez kept doing nothing but publicly criticizing Garcia and calling him a thief and bandit. Ollanta Humala did not keep Chavez at bay and never criticized his public meddling; Garcia used the opportunity to depict him as a Chavez puppet. Humala has a good chance of winning next election, but Chavez now knows that he can't be getting involved without damaging his favored candidate.
The Mexican election offers clearer evidence of this, when loser candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador(AMLO) often rejected and denied all assertions of his connections with Hugo Chavez, right at the heat of the election. AMLO lost on a very questionable election, which I share with Galloway, but his rejection of Castro and Chavez where explicit; He almost wins.
In fact using Chavez to make people lose elections is perhaps the newest weapon against the kind of Bolivarian Bolchevism that Chavez exports from Venezuela. Ricardo Martinelli in Panama won 60% of the vote against Balbina Herrera, who had to get out of her way to deny any of her alleged links with Chavez... Even Chavez expressed it himself : "they are trying to use me to scare people away in Panama's and El Salvador's election." Martinelli, which in Chavez standards is a textbook greedy neoliberal oligarch ready to steal away everybody's money won the panamanian election via a third party alternative.
All of this brings me to Honduras and tomorrow's murky referendum called upon by Manuel Zelaya's government but deemed illegal by the country's supreme court and national assembly(at both branches members of his own liberal party declared the election illegal). The ruling came because the election is not being run by the electoral college rather by the executive branch. The details are not entirely clear but things are getting tough for a man who needs to step down by law but seems unable to let go. The Kirchner family who runs the Argentine government is due for midterm elections tomorrow and it will be a good indicator of public support for the controversial governing family. Chavez has been often used by the opposition to generate repudiation to the Kirchner.. lets see if it works.
I am falling asleep, need to study for ARE exams. They seem to be such a racket, but sometimes they can be fun.
Matters in latin america are far from corroborating Galloway's hypothesis. Peru's election were actually thrown away from Ollanta Humala(the loser) on Alan Garcia's favor(one of the worst presidents of latin america in the 80's) because Hugo Chavez kept doing nothing but publicly criticizing Garcia and calling him a thief and bandit. Ollanta Humala did not keep Chavez at bay and never criticized his public meddling; Garcia used the opportunity to depict him as a Chavez puppet. Humala has a good chance of winning next election, but Chavez now knows that he can't be getting involved without damaging his favored candidate.
The Mexican election offers clearer evidence of this, when loser candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador(AMLO) often rejected and denied all assertions of his connections with Hugo Chavez, right at the heat of the election. AMLO lost on a very questionable election, which I share with Galloway, but his rejection of Castro and Chavez where explicit; He almost wins.
In fact using Chavez to make people lose elections is perhaps the newest weapon against the kind of Bolivarian Bolchevism that Chavez exports from Venezuela. Ricardo Martinelli in Panama won 60% of the vote against Balbina Herrera, who had to get out of her way to deny any of her alleged links with Chavez... Even Chavez expressed it himself : "they are trying to use me to scare people away in Panama's and El Salvador's election." Martinelli, which in Chavez standards is a textbook greedy neoliberal oligarch ready to steal away everybody's money won the panamanian election via a third party alternative.
All of this brings me to Honduras and tomorrow's murky referendum called upon by Manuel Zelaya's government but deemed illegal by the country's supreme court and national assembly(at both branches members of his own liberal party declared the election illegal). The ruling came because the election is not being run by the electoral college rather by the executive branch. The details are not entirely clear but things are getting tough for a man who needs to step down by law but seems unable to let go. The Kirchner family who runs the Argentine government is due for midterm elections tomorrow and it will be a good indicator of public support for the controversial governing family. Chavez has been often used by the opposition to generate repudiation to the Kirchner.. lets see if it works.
I am falling asleep, need to study for ARE exams. They seem to be such a racket, but sometimes they can be fun.
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