A bit surprising, but not quite, Alvaro Uribe went into UNASUR in the spirit of an internationalist but he will probably leave an isolationist. All Chavez had to do is provide the forum with a rather recycled narrative of american interventionism, and then wait for the rest of the presidents to bury Uribe's hope for acceptance of his newly planned american military presence in Colombia. A big letdown to Uribe was also Peruvian President Alan Garcia's cautious support, who while ridiculing Chavez in his speech, still asked for accountability from Colombia in regards to US spionage etc.
As a latin american I have always opposed foreign military presence in latin america, regardless of its nature, but specially american. The baggage is just too overwhelming. For example, the U.S. Military presence in Latin America has always been used as a disguise to support the establishment of nationalist authoritarian regimes. One recent example is Panama's Noriega in the 80's. While Noriega's upbringing both as a CIA agent and his reputation as a vicious and brutal man within the PDF demonstrated his support of the US, as soon as he flipped his support he based all his political ideology on the platform of US interventionism in Panama. Fidel Castro and all his international ideologues, regarding Guantanamo and Cuba's vicinity to the US, will support any kind of abuse, torture, repression or injustice on the pretext of american interventionism(see Galloway for example around 2:30 specially).
In a contemporary context, the presence of the american military must be transposed to the absolutist regime of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela and the prospects of re-election of Alvaro Uribe in Colombia. The truth is that both of them come out winning in this matter. On one hand Hugo Chavez can now enjoy an infinite presence of american military next door in order to solidify his regime's propaganda. On the other hand Alvaro Uribe will enjoy far more of Chavista overtours in his domestic policy and will mobilize his support against the vulgarity and viciousness of the Venezuelan government.
Ideally, Uribe would let his term expire, set the example for the rest of latin america, and let a new colombian president be elected, who would likely defend an alternative to the Chavista bolchevism without 8 years of baggage. Now what we are getting is a mirror image of endless perpetuity in power, and on top of it, US bases in Colombia.
Its funny that those in power are always winning, even if it looks like they are losing. That's my conclusion out of this UNASUR bussiness today.
Friday, August 28, 2009
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Amy Goodman & Zelaya supporter get smashed by former Clinton Advisor
Listen or read Amy Goodman and a Zelaya supporter get completely obliterated by a former Clinton advisor
What a shame.. Goodman starts as a moderator but later has to intervene in the middle of the debate because it was just too much of a smackdown. I want to clarify that I don't support the Honduran coup.. but sometimes radicals face radicalism. OH!!, and in the end, watch how Goodman doesn't want to talk about Venezuela's involvement with the Zelaya government. Its like talking about a Lebanese election without mentioning Syria, Iran or the US. DISGRACEFUL!!
Democracy Now or yesterday?
What a shame.. Goodman starts as a moderator but later has to intervene in the middle of the debate because it was just too much of a smackdown. I want to clarify that I don't support the Honduran coup.. but sometimes radicals face radicalism. OH!!, and in the end, watch how Goodman doesn't want to talk about Venezuela's involvement with the Zelaya government. Its like talking about a Lebanese election without mentioning Syria, Iran or the US. DISGRACEFUL!!
Democracy Now or yesterday?
Goodman and Davis debating. I am not showing the other guy's picture because he was tacitally disqualified by Goodman herself. Listen to the debate yourself!
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Predictions for the current Honduras crisis...
After watching all kinds of media outlets from left, right, center, fence etc. It is rather easy to predict what's going to unfold in Honduras in the next 10 days after the now infamous military coup d'etat that took Manuel Zelaya in pajamas to Costa Rica.
Watching General Romeo Vasquez speaking to the press, the man seems to be at least in appearance, a confused man trying to do what's right. After all it was the supreme court and the national assembly who declared and reiterated the illegality of the state run polling regarding a possible referendum to ammend the constitution. In an interview with Telesur, a tv network sympathetic to Chavez and his regime, General Vasquez narrated how in the days preceding the coup he tried to convene with "his" President Zelaya a way to interpret his orders against the ruling of the supreme court and the assembly. Zelaya responded by firing him, but the courts and the assembly proceded to annul whatever Zelaya wanted, which in my opinion reveals who is calling the shots besides the General.
I think its clear, now that Micheletti has been illegally proclaimed interim president, that Micheletti and both the judicial and legislative branch of the Honduran government where in clear conspiracy to oust President Zelaya in far greater proportion than the military. The international reaction has been unanimous in condemnation and Micheletti seems to be against quite difficult odds to stay in power. In this context, I predict this is what's going to happen:
Tomorrow, people are going to be rioting in Honduras and in the same manner like Iran, there's going to be a lot of drama involved in its reporting. At some point Micheletti will demand the military to intervene with force and there will be a few deaths of probably young people. Vasquez is going to face a few revolts within his ranks and he will realize that he is in deep trouble and on top of everything he will see how the morale of his troops will rapidly decay. Sometime either tomorrow or wednesday, Zelaya is going to clandestinely arrive in Honduras and appear in some kind of rally with his supporters all around him in downtown Tegucigalpa. He is going to march to the presidential palace, where, after some impasse, will be allowed inside for negotiation with Micheletti and Vasquez. Since the international pressure will be so hard with Micheletti, he will accept conditions for Zelaya to regain power, given that he remains president at the assembly. Zelaya, in about a day or two, three at most will regain power but won't call for a referendum because he would be too scared to go through so much ridicule again. Even with him returning to power, Zelaya's handling of the entire situation leaves him weakened, looking foolish as he is taken around in Venezuelan planes and letting Chavista political hitmen do all the dirty work for him. Even for people who don't realize it, the population does takes notice of this things and will punish him in case he actually achieves a referendum or whoever candidate seeks to become his chosen successor.
What the military did was deplorable, a bit understandable, but definitely foolish and Micheletti and his allies should have predicted the wide condemnation by the international community. Micheletti has killed himself politically but he also gave Zelaya hard stab that will be difficult to overcome. So as I write this the riots should be starting, lets hope this whole things ends as soon as possible.
Watching General Romeo Vasquez speaking to the press, the man seems to be at least in appearance, a confused man trying to do what's right. After all it was the supreme court and the national assembly who declared and reiterated the illegality of the state run polling regarding a possible referendum to ammend the constitution. In an interview with Telesur, a tv network sympathetic to Chavez and his regime, General Vasquez narrated how in the days preceding the coup he tried to convene with "his" President Zelaya a way to interpret his orders against the ruling of the supreme court and the assembly. Zelaya responded by firing him, but the courts and the assembly proceded to annul whatever Zelaya wanted, which in my opinion reveals who is calling the shots besides the General.
I think its clear, now that Micheletti has been illegally proclaimed interim president, that Micheletti and both the judicial and legislative branch of the Honduran government where in clear conspiracy to oust President Zelaya in far greater proportion than the military. The international reaction has been unanimous in condemnation and Micheletti seems to be against quite difficult odds to stay in power. In this context, I predict this is what's going to happen:
Tomorrow, people are going to be rioting in Honduras and in the same manner like Iran, there's going to be a lot of drama involved in its reporting. At some point Micheletti will demand the military to intervene with force and there will be a few deaths of probably young people. Vasquez is going to face a few revolts within his ranks and he will realize that he is in deep trouble and on top of everything he will see how the morale of his troops will rapidly decay. Sometime either tomorrow or wednesday, Zelaya is going to clandestinely arrive in Honduras and appear in some kind of rally with his supporters all around him in downtown Tegucigalpa. He is going to march to the presidential palace, where, after some impasse, will be allowed inside for negotiation with Micheletti and Vasquez. Since the international pressure will be so hard with Micheletti, he will accept conditions for Zelaya to regain power, given that he remains president at the assembly. Zelaya, in about a day or two, three at most will regain power but won't call for a referendum because he would be too scared to go through so much ridicule again. Even with him returning to power, Zelaya's handling of the entire situation leaves him weakened, looking foolish as he is taken around in Venezuelan planes and letting Chavista political hitmen do all the dirty work for him. Even for people who don't realize it, the population does takes notice of this things and will punish him in case he actually achieves a referendum or whoever candidate seeks to become his chosen successor.
What the military did was deplorable, a bit understandable, but definitely foolish and Micheletti and his allies should have predicted the wide condemnation by the international community. Micheletti has killed himself politically but he also gave Zelaya hard stab that will be difficult to overcome. So as I write this the riots should be starting, lets hope this whole things ends as soon as possible.
Honduras: Zelaya, Chavez and Chavista Bolchevism
To my surprise I woke up this morning at the news that the Honduran military had effectively taken control of Honduras by deporting President Manuel Zelaya and detaining 8 of his ministers as well as briefly kidnapping Ecuadorian, Venezuelan, Cuban and Nicaraguan diplomats. I just couldn't believe it, is it that somebody had enough balls to stand up and carry out truly radical action against this demagogue and his allies?
The now official coup d'etat is ridden with violations of international law(specially regarding the diplomats) as well as a partial suspension of electricity and the occupation of a news channel sympathetic to now former president Zelaya. A worrisome display of force by the Honduran military, it was a testament to the fragility of democratic governments in small latin american countries as well as the ever-present threat of armed insubordination in relationship to civil societies.
Yesterday Zelaya, while thinking the worst was over after his military commander refused to follow orders and carry out an illegal government run-and-paid poll, sat on the presidential palace surrounded by civilians of all kinds who expressed their solidarity to him, including children and a breast-feeding mother. The rather bizarre scene of the president being shielded by civilians had Zelaya commenting to El Pais of Spain his gratitude to the US government who according to him was one of the few political forces responsible for stopping the what was thought to be an aborted coup. He also lamented how Honduran civil society had to struggle for 30 years to subordinate the military to the state of law, and how the military's duty was to follow its president, the man elected by the people, his people. He layed there, strangely, in an scene of mixed international pauperism and pathetic solicitation; this only continues with his now public interviews from Costa Rica dressed in the same pajamas that he was wearing when he was deposed.
It is important to emphasize on Zelaya's reflections on the state of his country, after all his best ally is Hugo Chavez. Zelaya calls him a "democrat" and the Venezuelan government has supplied all the ballots for the government run polling, now effectively cancelled. But how is it that the same man who is now denouncing the usurpation of Honduran military power is the same man who considers Chavez a man of democracy? Chavez is notorious for his glorification of military power. He himself organized and leaded a massive military coup d'etat in 1992 that left 30 dead and constantly preached that the military is indeed the cornerstone to preserve his revolution. He shows up in uniform, leads military parades and commands the troops in protocolar ceremonies. He has never regretted his actions in 1992 and recalls it as a heroic epic ? Now this is the man that Zelaya has picked to empathize with his grievances against the honduran military caste and its bringing results.
Hugo Chavez has promised to "depose by whatever means necessary" whoever now becomes leader of Honduras, and has threatened with military action if his embassy or his diplomats are either harmed or kidnapped. According to him, any agression to his diplomats will be considered a "de-facto declaration of war" and he will not stand aside. The Venezuelan military, heavily re-armed and ever present in Venezuelan politics is "on-alert".
If Zelaya is concerned with rejecting military rule as the leader of the honduran civil society then he should reconsider keeping silent at the foolish chavista bark of military intervention. If Latin Americans are so preoccupied with ridding itself from American interventionism then whoever carries any common sense will recognize the opportunism that Chavez has assumed in this whole crisis and he himself should be denounced.
The fact of the matter is that Chavez will not be denounced by Zelaya, and he, like a powerless fool will only stand there letting the ecuadorians, nicaraguans and venezuelan do all the barking for him. It is because of this that the Honduran military has taken radical action, action against a new kind of Venezuelan lead foreign hegemony that is delinquent and cohercive. Latin American countries are naturally scared at the spectre of a new wave of military coups and have reacted unanimously against it. But with Venezuela's meddling in every latin american country, sometimes you will get violent insurrections against its presence. I now recognize that I am not surprised AT ALL by it and people in general should understand it in the same manner that people understand the rise of Chavez in Venezuela, action leads to reaction. Too much for the Chavista caste, lets see if they really have the balls to do anything - I doubt it.
The now official coup d'etat is ridden with violations of international law(specially regarding the diplomats) as well as a partial suspension of electricity and the occupation of a news channel sympathetic to now former president Zelaya. A worrisome display of force by the Honduran military, it was a testament to the fragility of democratic governments in small latin american countries as well as the ever-present threat of armed insubordination in relationship to civil societies.
Yesterday Zelaya, while thinking the worst was over after his military commander refused to follow orders and carry out an illegal government run-and-paid poll, sat on the presidential palace surrounded by civilians of all kinds who expressed their solidarity to him, including children and a breast-feeding mother. The rather bizarre scene of the president being shielded by civilians had Zelaya commenting to El Pais of Spain his gratitude to the US government who according to him was one of the few political forces responsible for stopping the what was thought to be an aborted coup. He also lamented how Honduran civil society had to struggle for 30 years to subordinate the military to the state of law, and how the military's duty was to follow its president, the man elected by the people, his people. He layed there, strangely, in an scene of mixed international pauperism and pathetic solicitation; this only continues with his now public interviews from Costa Rica dressed in the same pajamas that he was wearing when he was deposed.
It is important to emphasize on Zelaya's reflections on the state of his country, after all his best ally is Hugo Chavez. Zelaya calls him a "democrat" and the Venezuelan government has supplied all the ballots for the government run polling, now effectively cancelled. But how is it that the same man who is now denouncing the usurpation of Honduran military power is the same man who considers Chavez a man of democracy? Chavez is notorious for his glorification of military power. He himself organized and leaded a massive military coup d'etat in 1992 that left 30 dead and constantly preached that the military is indeed the cornerstone to preserve his revolution. He shows up in uniform, leads military parades and commands the troops in protocolar ceremonies. He has never regretted his actions in 1992 and recalls it as a heroic epic ? Now this is the man that Zelaya has picked to empathize with his grievances against the honduran military caste and its bringing results.
Hugo Chavez has promised to "depose by whatever means necessary" whoever now becomes leader of Honduras, and has threatened with military action if his embassy or his diplomats are either harmed or kidnapped. According to him, any agression to his diplomats will be considered a "de-facto declaration of war" and he will not stand aside. The Venezuelan military, heavily re-armed and ever present in Venezuelan politics is "on-alert".
If Zelaya is concerned with rejecting military rule as the leader of the honduran civil society then he should reconsider keeping silent at the foolish chavista bark of military intervention. If Latin Americans are so preoccupied with ridding itself from American interventionism then whoever carries any common sense will recognize the opportunism that Chavez has assumed in this whole crisis and he himself should be denounced.
The fact of the matter is that Chavez will not be denounced by Zelaya, and he, like a powerless fool will only stand there letting the ecuadorians, nicaraguans and venezuelan do all the barking for him. It is because of this that the Honduran military has taken radical action, action against a new kind of Venezuelan lead foreign hegemony that is delinquent and cohercive. Latin American countries are naturally scared at the spectre of a new wave of military coups and have reacted unanimously against it. But with Venezuela's meddling in every latin american country, sometimes you will get violent insurrections against its presence. I now recognize that I am not surprised AT ALL by it and people in general should understand it in the same manner that people understand the rise of Chavez in Venezuela, action leads to reaction. Too much for the Chavista caste, lets see if they really have the balls to do anything - I doubt it.
Chavez, the man in uniform, with the men in uniform
Saturday, June 27, 2009
Factor Chavez
George Galloway, the extravagant british MP whenever needing to refer to latin-america is commonly heard repeating the following statement "the only way to win an election in Latin America now (unless you want to cheat as they did in Peru and Mexico) is to say you're a friend of Fidel Castro and an enemy of George Bush." Go check youtube video or writing; the guy has been preaching this junk for the past 7 years though he might replace Chavez with Castro.
Matters in latin america are far from corroborating Galloway's hypothesis. Peru's election were actually thrown away from Ollanta Humala(the loser) on Alan Garcia's favor(one of the worst presidents of latin america in the 80's) because Hugo Chavez kept doing nothing but publicly criticizing Garcia and calling him a thief and bandit. Ollanta Humala did not keep Chavez at bay and never criticized his public meddling; Garcia used the opportunity to depict him as a Chavez puppet. Humala has a good chance of winning next election, but Chavez now knows that he can't be getting involved without damaging his favored candidate.
The Mexican election offers clearer evidence of this, when loser candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador(AMLO) often rejected and denied all assertions of his connections with Hugo Chavez, right at the heat of the election. AMLO lost on a very questionable election, which I share with Galloway, but his rejection of Castro and Chavez where explicit; He almost wins.
In fact using Chavez to make people lose elections is perhaps the newest weapon against the kind of Bolivarian Bolchevism that Chavez exports from Venezuela. Ricardo Martinelli in Panama won 60% of the vote against Balbina Herrera, who had to get out of her way to deny any of her alleged links with Chavez... Even Chavez expressed it himself : "they are trying to use me to scare people away in Panama's and El Salvador's election." Martinelli, which in Chavez standards is a textbook greedy neoliberal oligarch ready to steal away everybody's money won the panamanian election via a third party alternative.
All of this brings me to Honduras and tomorrow's murky referendum called upon by Manuel Zelaya's government but deemed illegal by the country's supreme court and national assembly(at both branches members of his own liberal party declared the election illegal). The ruling came because the election is not being run by the electoral college rather by the executive branch. The details are not entirely clear but things are getting tough for a man who needs to step down by law but seems unable to let go. The Kirchner family who runs the Argentine government is due for midterm elections tomorrow and it will be a good indicator of public support for the controversial governing family. Chavez has been often used by the opposition to generate repudiation to the Kirchner.. lets see if it works.
I am falling asleep, need to study for ARE exams. They seem to be such a racket, but sometimes they can be fun.
Matters in latin america are far from corroborating Galloway's hypothesis. Peru's election were actually thrown away from Ollanta Humala(the loser) on Alan Garcia's favor(one of the worst presidents of latin america in the 80's) because Hugo Chavez kept doing nothing but publicly criticizing Garcia and calling him a thief and bandit. Ollanta Humala did not keep Chavez at bay and never criticized his public meddling; Garcia used the opportunity to depict him as a Chavez puppet. Humala has a good chance of winning next election, but Chavez now knows that he can't be getting involved without damaging his favored candidate.
The Mexican election offers clearer evidence of this, when loser candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador(AMLO) often rejected and denied all assertions of his connections with Hugo Chavez, right at the heat of the election. AMLO lost on a very questionable election, which I share with Galloway, but his rejection of Castro and Chavez where explicit; He almost wins.
In fact using Chavez to make people lose elections is perhaps the newest weapon against the kind of Bolivarian Bolchevism that Chavez exports from Venezuela. Ricardo Martinelli in Panama won 60% of the vote against Balbina Herrera, who had to get out of her way to deny any of her alleged links with Chavez... Even Chavez expressed it himself : "they are trying to use me to scare people away in Panama's and El Salvador's election." Martinelli, which in Chavez standards is a textbook greedy neoliberal oligarch ready to steal away everybody's money won the panamanian election via a third party alternative.
All of this brings me to Honduras and tomorrow's murky referendum called upon by Manuel Zelaya's government but deemed illegal by the country's supreme court and national assembly(at both branches members of his own liberal party declared the election illegal). The ruling came because the election is not being run by the electoral college rather by the executive branch. The details are not entirely clear but things are getting tough for a man who needs to step down by law but seems unable to let go. The Kirchner family who runs the Argentine government is due for midterm elections tomorrow and it will be a good indicator of public support for the controversial governing family. Chavez has been often used by the opposition to generate repudiation to the Kirchner.. lets see if it works.
I am falling asleep, need to study for ARE exams. They seem to be such a racket, but sometimes they can be fun.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Referendum's results will be irrelevant.. Chavez will stay in power regardless
Today is February 15, 2009 and Venezuelans will vote in a few hours for a referendum to annul any term limits to an elected governmental office. Hugo Chavez, president of Venezuela has run a nasty intimidating campaign against a weakening opposition in Venezuela, whose ranks keep diminishing as Venezuelans keep immigrating out of the country. On the other hand, the plucky opposition of Venezuela have dealt Chavez a major headache conducting a brave and well coordinated campaign of civil disobedience and counter-government propaganda.
Regardless of the results of today's election, Hugo Chavez will remain in power indefinitely in Venezuela for the next 20 years, or perhaps even more. There are several reasons to believe this. Chavez, first of all, enjoys a high popularity standing within the venezuelan electorate, he controls a monopoly of the governmental three branches and all public institutions. With a few exceptions in some elected officials who are now rendered irrelevant by either Chavista paramilitary groups or the government itself, Hugo Chavez is guaranteed to be in charge of the country even in the figurative case that he quits or decides to retire, or whatever scenario that would find him in absence.
The venezuelan institutions and public bureaucracy are completely controlled by Chavista simpathyzers, if Chavez is gone there are going to be many characters who could replace him. A new ruling class has emerged in Venezuela and will not yield power to anyone; Chavez for example could decide to have someone else run for office under his tutelage, such is the example of Dimitri Medeyev and Vladimir Putin in Russia; or potentially Alvaro Uribe and Andres Felipe Arias in Colombia. The possibilities of a mini-Chavez could be endless, this person could offer a referendum to allow Chavez for reelection in 2016, or even in 2013, quitting office afterwards and offer an early election so Chavez could assume power in 2014 or even earlier. This case contemplates what Chavez has already publicly stated on the possibility of him winning today's referendum: he would quit, run again, in order to restart another mandate until 2016. From now until the expiration of Chavez mandate in 2012 there are three long years where Chavez can legally mobilize the national assembly to conduct another referendum on term limits and try for a third time(He could do this in the blink of an eye for the 2010 congressional elections and no challenges from the supreme court). If you are still skeptic, Just take a look at what's happening in Colombia to get an idea.
The future of Venezuela looks pretty bleak; violence is at record levels and lynch mobs and all kinds of irregular armed groups have emerged under his mandate. Middle and high class citizens are immigrating away in masses and the possibility of a resignated opposition such as communist Cuba or communist China is starting to emerge. But this exodus is by no means symbol to the illusion that only rich people in Venezuela oppose Chavez; proof of this is the poorest slum of Caracas, the district of Petare(1/5 of Caracas districts in absolute squalor) a place reminiscent of the worst favelas of Rio that rejected Chavez candidate in last mayoral election. Although this sets a clear example to neighboring countries such as Panama, Colombia and Ecuador, it is indeed a sad one, and the erosion of Venezuela has been a major case study of political of neo-authoritarianism in latin america and in the world. Perhaps Venezuelans opposers, under their roman catholic belief in destiny still think that one day this ordeal will be over, but such is not the case. Cuba is the clearest latin american example, but there are many others in the last few years such as the case of Belarus and Zimbabwe, all major regimes openly sympathized by Chavez(or Saudi Arabia by the US in any case). These countries all under bloody militaristic regimes conduct symbolic elections in order to validate themselves in front of their supporters and the international community. Democracy under the boot of cohersion and intimidation does not exist and will not exist; at least I know I am not being fooled by any of this.
Expect Venezuela to rid itself from the Chavista boot in 20 or 40 years time when the disgust of its population will not tolerate the abuses of the chavista ruling class just like Spain did in the 1980's or Argentina or Chile. For the rest of Latin America will be witness of this, if not succumbing to it, and because of this proper resitance is needed. Perhaps its relevant to quote El Che Guevara who said that most' people live inside the invisible cage of capitalism.' Also, Fidel Castro said yesterday that the future of Cuba lies in this referendum. I think Che is right and Fidel wrong. Che is right about the cage of rabid capitalism; venezuelans must realize that there is another cage, a far sinister one, and it is the one of Chavista authoritarianism which continues to annul the civility of its society. But Fidel is wrong because its irrelevant what happens in this referendum. Chavez will remain in power for years to come; unless something completely drastic occurs.... very unlikely.
Regardless of the results of today's election, Hugo Chavez will remain in power indefinitely in Venezuela for the next 20 years, or perhaps even more. There are several reasons to believe this. Chavez, first of all, enjoys a high popularity standing within the venezuelan electorate, he controls a monopoly of the governmental three branches and all public institutions. With a few exceptions in some elected officials who are now rendered irrelevant by either Chavista paramilitary groups or the government itself, Hugo Chavez is guaranteed to be in charge of the country even in the figurative case that he quits or decides to retire, or whatever scenario that would find him in absence.
The venezuelan institutions and public bureaucracy are completely controlled by Chavista simpathyzers, if Chavez is gone there are going to be many characters who could replace him. A new ruling class has emerged in Venezuela and will not yield power to anyone; Chavez for example could decide to have someone else run for office under his tutelage, such is the example of Dimitri Medeyev and Vladimir Putin in Russia; or potentially Alvaro Uribe and Andres Felipe Arias in Colombia. The possibilities of a mini-Chavez could be endless, this person could offer a referendum to allow Chavez for reelection in 2016, or even in 2013, quitting office afterwards and offer an early election so Chavez could assume power in 2014 or even earlier. This case contemplates what Chavez has already publicly stated on the possibility of him winning today's referendum: he would quit, run again, in order to restart another mandate until 2016. From now until the expiration of Chavez mandate in 2012 there are three long years where Chavez can legally mobilize the national assembly to conduct another referendum on term limits and try for a third time(He could do this in the blink of an eye for the 2010 congressional elections and no challenges from the supreme court). If you are still skeptic, Just take a look at what's happening in Colombia to get an idea.
The future of Venezuela looks pretty bleak; violence is at record levels and lynch mobs and all kinds of irregular armed groups have emerged under his mandate. Middle and high class citizens are immigrating away in masses and the possibility of a resignated opposition such as communist Cuba or communist China is starting to emerge. But this exodus is by no means symbol to the illusion that only rich people in Venezuela oppose Chavez; proof of this is the poorest slum of Caracas, the district of Petare(1/5 of Caracas districts in absolute squalor) a place reminiscent of the worst favelas of Rio that rejected Chavez candidate in last mayoral election. Although this sets a clear example to neighboring countries such as Panama, Colombia and Ecuador, it is indeed a sad one, and the erosion of Venezuela has been a major case study of political of neo-authoritarianism in latin america and in the world. Perhaps Venezuelans opposers, under their roman catholic belief in destiny still think that one day this ordeal will be over, but such is not the case. Cuba is the clearest latin american example, but there are many others in the last few years such as the case of Belarus and Zimbabwe, all major regimes openly sympathized by Chavez(or Saudi Arabia by the US in any case). These countries all under bloody militaristic regimes conduct symbolic elections in order to validate themselves in front of their supporters and the international community. Democracy under the boot of cohersion and intimidation does not exist and will not exist; at least I know I am not being fooled by any of this.
Expect Venezuela to rid itself from the Chavista boot in 20 or 40 years time when the disgust of its population will not tolerate the abuses of the chavista ruling class just like Spain did in the 1980's or Argentina or Chile. For the rest of Latin America will be witness of this, if not succumbing to it, and because of this proper resitance is needed. Perhaps its relevant to quote El Che Guevara who said that most' people live inside the invisible cage of capitalism.' Also, Fidel Castro said yesterday that the future of Cuba lies in this referendum. I think Che is right and Fidel wrong. Che is right about the cage of rabid capitalism; venezuelans must realize that there is another cage, a far sinister one, and it is the one of Chavista authoritarianism which continues to annul the civility of its society. But Fidel is wrong because its irrelevant what happens in this referendum. Chavez will remain in power for years to come; unless something completely drastic occurs.... very unlikely.
Buddies - Mugabe(Zimbabwe) - Lukashenko(Belarus) - Chavez (Venezuela)
Monday, January 19, 2009
Chavista Paramilitary Groups Occupy and Vandalize Caracas City Hall
Today on January 19, 2009 Pro Chavez Paramilitary groups, likely "La Piedrita" although not confirmed, have occupied the Caracas City Hall and at this hour remain in the area. According to Opposition newspaper El Universal, the militants entered the City Hall last night minutes after the local police retreated from the area. The irregular armed group took hostage 2 security guards by cuffing them and later released them at 5:00 AM on january 19 and they are staying in the building indefinitely without any resistance from the police or the military.
No particular group has claimed responsibility for the event. Pro-Chavez website, aporrea.org, emitted a communique promoting active mobilization against the City Hall of Caracas, led by newly elected Mayor, Antonio Ledezma. Even Chavista bloggers in disbelief are recognizing the acts to be so despicable that they are attributing it to a conspiracy by the opposition itself (Ledezma et al) and calling for the Chavista government to repudiate them. This is testament to the undoubtedly criminal behavior Ledezma is being subjected to (or for anyone who wishes to believe it, inflicting upon himself).
Ledezma, was also impeded of entering the City Hall the morning of the 18 of January by Pro Chavez demonstrators. According to Talcualdigital.com the militants arrived in Military Trucks carrying t-shits and flags in favor of the upcoming February 15 referendum ammendment on term limits for all elected positions in the country. The police and National Guard retreated from the area as soon as the groups arrived.
According to Ledezma, the irregular group has invaded the City Hall property in order to intimidate him and all the other opposition elected official from carrying out their governmental responsibilities. Ledezma also claims that in particular, the takeover of the city hall was intended to retrieve documents that incriminated Juan Barretto the latest Pro-Chavez Caracas Mayor. Showing the documents that the groups were allegedly looking for, Ledezma declared(translated from El Nacional newspaper):
"Here are the documents they were looking for last night" said Ledezma, who enumerated the projects that were fully paid but never executed. Among these he emphasized in the payment of 6 thousand 532 millions of Bolivares Fuertes for the adquisition of Ambulances. "These ambulances have dissappeared." He also highlighted the payment of 16 thousand 999 millions of Bolivares Fuertes to a company that was going to complete a technological project. "This money is now being enjoyed by this company."
A few days ago, Chavez gave a speech on the recent rioting carried by student groups opposed to his regime. Besides accussing them of being the "children of the wealthy" he encouraged the police force and army to "gas them" any time they block out major avenues since either "his regime will govern or not." The series of sit downs on major public avenues have become a real headache for the proper functioning of the city, and its understandable that Chavez, as the head of state, is talking about taking drastic measures to stop this. But Chavez is not willing to do the same when armed groups are taking over actual state institutions that happen to antagonize him.
Chavez is clear about something: his government will either govern or not, but those who will be governed and guaranteed basic rights of justice are only the people who support him, rich, poor or middle class. This is the truth about this regime and is now evident at the electoral plane, where the poorest Favela of Caracas voted in favor of Doctor Antonio Ledezma and not a Chavez supporter. Like in any pest or plague, great figures will arise to oppose it and later erradicate them. The Chavista regime will keep cohercing and intimidating its opposition as far as their eroding values allow them, even as Ledezma keeps calling him to unite in the effort to solve the deep problems of the city of Caracas. Their fire turns against them blown away by the wind of virtue and coherency that Ledezma brings to the table and this, they can't stand.
Student demonstrators last week staging a sit-down against a term limits amendment slated for feb. 15, 2009. The Students are qualified by Chavez as "the children of the wealthy"
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
